by Professor Dato Dr. Ahmad Ibrahim,
Malaysia’s projection and actual Covid-19 cases.
In January 2021, MoH DG Tan Sri Dr. Noor Hisham Abdullah posted on Twitter two of the ministry’s Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model projections up to May 31; applying R0 infection rates (R0, pronounced R naught) at 1.1 and 1.2.
For the former, R0 of 1.1, the Ministry projected that Malaysia’s daily cases should only reach 3,000 daily cases by the second week of February, 5,000 by the second week of April, and 8,000 by the fourth week of May, and for the latter; R0 of 1.2, it was projected that Malaysia would only reach 3,000 daily cases by the fourth week of January, 5,000 cases by the third week of February and 8,000 by the third week of March.
However, Malaysia breached the 3,000 mark, recording 3,027 Covid-19 cases on January 7, 2021, 7478 new cases on 26 May 2021, and a record high of 9,020 cases on 29th May 2021 highest daily toll since the start of the pandemic. These have all exceeded the projections of the MoH.
We are at war with a Virus and it's essential for countries to apply Wartime logic to fight the pandemic.
At the opening of the World Health Organisation’s annual assembly of member states on 24th May 2021, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres had urged recognition of the fact that “we are at war with a virus” and had called for countries to apply ‘wartime logic’ to fight the (Corona) virus that has killed 3.4 million people.
In response to the rising Covid cases and deaths, on 28th June, the prime minister announced that Government would extend the MCO for a further 2 weeks till mid-July and when Covid cases reduce to 4000 and below, Malaysia will enter into phase 2 of the National Recovery Period.
Alas, the Rakyat saw this as a grim impossibility with the current Covid cases hovering between 5000 plus and 6000 plus and at times reaching near 7000 cases, only with the occasional 4000 plus Covid cases registered recently.
Recommendations for Malaysia
As Malaysia continues to experience the surge in Covid-19 cases and deaths, with the projected 4000 cases near impossible to achieve at this rate and by this current strategy, and in view of the MoH daily update that industry clusters are the major sources and causes of infections it is imperative for the Government, to reflect upon whether the current strategy and response by Malaysia is the RIGHT Prescription for Success.
The prime minister had shared with Malaysians that the Ministry of Health had recommended a total lockdown similar to MCO 1.0 for MCO 3.0. However, news reports highlighted that there were arguments between Ministers and finally a nationwide semi lockdown was imposed, with many non-essential businesses approved to operate. This had horrified the public.
With a respected prime minister and Cabinet ministers, it is vital that Malaysia applies wartime logic to win this war. A military strategist will apply military power including military forces, territory, and resources to fight a major land, sea, and air war and strategize on how to apply force, including which aspect of the military -land, naval, and air forces to mobilize.
As a case in point, in the event of an attack or crisis at sea, the Chief of the Navy and his team would develop strategies for the planning and conduct of war with the aim of achieving victory at sea, under the leadership of the Commander in Chief
It is thus critical for the Government to recognize that Covid-19 pandemic is a public health crisis and accord priority to the Ministry of Health and its team of experts to develop relevant strategies to fight this pandemic and support the MoH’s recommendations for a nationwide full lockdown as per MCO 1.0 for the nation to have a better chance of achieving the target of 4000 Covid cases and less, which will enable the nation and rakyat to proceed to phase 2, 3 and 4 of the NRP successfully.
The danger of maintaining this relatively less restrictive MCO as compared to MCO 1.0 may see the nation in a permanent lockdown which will ultimately further worsen the nation’s health, social, economic, business, and financial crisis.
Additionally, as in war, it is critical that the military resources, supplies, equipment, and weapons must be adequate and in good condition.
Presently it has been reported that our front liners are working long hours and many are facing burnt out, hospital beds are nearly fully occupied and oxygen may be insufficient which paints a grim situation for the nation’s health system which may be overwhelmed any time soon
Furthermore, the stress, despair, and desperation felt by the Rakyat arising from prolonged lockdown and isolation from family and friends are causing stress, and mental illnesses, and resulting in social crises including domestic violence and the tragic cases of suicides reported daily.
Thus it is urgent that a new strategy must be in place including instituting a full and not a partial nation lockdown as it seems to be so currently, and closing non-essential businesses just for a targeted period of time to ensure the Covid cases and deaths can be reduced significantly for the Government to able to end the lockdown soon to facilitate a better quality of life for citizens including frontliners and improved conditions for businesses.
With this new prescription for success, Malaysia will have a better chance to emerge victorious over this catastrophic pandemic.
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