Thursday 28 October 2021

Science Matters for Humanity, Right Policy Critical

by Professor Dato Dr. Ahmad Ibrahim,

We have all seen how science has helped cushion the impact of the pandemic on

global health. The development of the vaccines in record time takes the top spot. We have to thank the science of biotechnology for the fast speed in developing vaccines, now shown to be the potential weapon to tame the pandemic. Science has also helped innovation in diagnostics for covid-19, improving the testing speed to quickly isolate infected cases. Internet science and IT, on the other hand, have been the science behind the contact tracing applications. In fact, without internet science, the world would struggle much more under the pandemic. The world economy would be much worse.


Education is one which has benefitted a lot from the internet. It would have been a disaster for education if the internet is not been around. The internet has made possible the delivery of lessons online. In fact, in higher education, lessons could even be delivered to international students. Through the ingenuity of digital science, there are now algorithms available that can almost mimic the physical contact experience of the normal classroom. Online conferences and webinars have also become commonplace. They are not only cheaper to conduct but can only reach out to a bigger audience, literally the world. Speakers can also present their papers without leaving their homes. Countries that had the foresight to invest in broadband now fare better than others.


Broadband has also proven to be a big help in online commerce. Now we do not have to leave home to enjoy our favorite cuisine. They are all easily available through online ordering and delivery. Not to mention the convenience to hail a ride to reach your destination. Science has made it all possible. The science may have been done decades ago. But now thanks to such investment, we are all tasting the fruits of the technologies which have sprung up from the fundamental science that was researched years ago. That is why we need to have the right balance between basic and applied research in science.


Some say the pandemic is only a pale shadow of the even bigger threat that is looming ahead. I am talking about climate change. Scientists predict that the repercussions on the world would be much worse once global temperatures exceed two degrees Centigrade. Population living in coastal cities and the low-lying islands of the world will become what people call climate refugees. Now the refugees of the world are created by conflicts and economic hardships. Displaced people from climate disasters will add to that number, making the problem even more complex for the world. Science is again seen as the solution to reduce global warming which fuels climate change. The sciences of energy, waste management, materials, and manufacturing hold some of the answers to resolve the climate issue. It is, therefore, no surprise that countries around the world are busy devoting resources to drive research on such sciences.


Like the pandemic, where no one country can single-handedly bring an end to the problem, the same applies to climate change. They both require global cooperation. We must also be reminded that science only provides the tools to combat the problems. In order to bring science to bear on the problems, we need the right policies to guide the effective implementation of the sciences. We need policies at both the international and local levels.


On climate change, the UNFCCC has been meeting on an annual basis to get agreements from nation-states on the policies to reduce GHG emissions. Everyone always cites the 2015 Paris Agreement, which managed to iron out much of the different stands by countries, as reference. The US which pulled out of the agreement in 2016 has now rejoined, a decision which many welcome. The next crucial meeting will be held in November in Glasgow. It is encouraging to hear of pledges by many countries to cut emissions. The acid test is of course in the implementation. But what has become clear is that, while science matters a lot to the world, the right policies are critical.

Tuesday 26 October 2021

Glory Days of Oil Numbered- Dealing with Climate And Health Crisis

  by Professor Dato Dr. Ahmad Ibrahim

The oil business is going through a troubling phase. Climate change concerns are

mounting pressure on the industry to reduce GHG emissions. A recent ruling by a court in the Hague on SHELL has raised the urgency to diversify into renewables. Unlike the oil crisis of the 70s and 80s, the current crisis is different. It is not associated with a sudden price rise accompanying a sharp supply contraction. It is to do with a sharp drop in price because of a supply glut coupled with a somber demand. The earlier crisis proved troubling for the global economy. But the current low-price crisis also spells trouble for the oil business itself. This crisis is much to blame for the recent layoffs of petroleum engineers. Will such a scenario change in the future?


Few in the oil business can forget the two major oil crises of the past. The first occurred in 1973 when Arab members of OPEC decided to quadruple the price of oil to almost $12 a barrel, a high price at that time, by cutting production and restricting exports to some countries. A steep global recession followed. The other major oil crisis occurred in 1979, a result of the Iranian Revolution (1978–79), where social unrest severely damaged the Iranian oil industry. The situation worsened following the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War (1980–88), which further added to the level of instability throughout the region. Since then, the business moved to more efficient methods of production, and the problems of the 1970s had been transformed into a relative oversupply of oil rather than a shortage.


The oversupply coupled with a declining demand is behind the current crisis.

Demand is now a bigger concern, as pressures grow for the world economy to transition into renewables. 2020 has not been kind to the petroleum industry when oil prices fell to their lowest levels in decades. The prices increased to around $40 a barrel later, because of production cuts by OPEC Plus, and some increase in oil consumption. Nevertheless, lockdowns and restrictions on transportation and travel remained in place in most parts of the world, putting demand well below normal. Only two things can change the balance; a war in the oil-producing region or the spread of COVID-19 to oil fields, as happened during the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918, resulting in supply disruption.


The demand side is not looking good. The bulk of oil demand depends on transportation fuels demand. Huge levels of oversupply have put pressure on storage space. This came to light recently when there was a panicked sell-off of WTI contracts by traders with nowhere to store their goods, sending prices for the benchmark falling to almost minus $40 per barrel – the first time the commodity had ever fallen into negative pricing. The cuts in production by OPEC+ and the slight increases in fuel demand are relieving pressure on storage. The industry is fortunate to have petrochemicals, now an important driver, responsible for half of all growth in demand.


Global attention is increasingly focused on accelerating clean energy transitions to

mitigate climate change. The oil and gas industry, with its big emission footprint, is at the heart of the matter. Demand growth for gasoline and diesel between 2019 and 2025 is set to weaken as countries around the world implement policies to improve efficiency and cut carbon emissions, and as electric vehicles increase in popularity. The global oil industry now faces challenges. On the demand side, experts caution it may not return to the pre-pandemic levels. The world is increasingly turning towards the electric transport sector, reducing the global demand for petroleum. Technologies such as carbon capture and utilization, which will make the emission problems disappear, are some options the oil business is experimenting with. The questions of cost and techno-economic feasibility loom large here. It is quite unlikely that the oil price will reach the high levels of the past. Only lower-cost producers may still have a chance. But for high price producers, the future looks bleak. The glory days of the oil business are numbered.

Friday 22 October 2021

Perform R&D Institutions or Face Innovation Paralysis

by Professor Dato Dr. Ahmad Ibrahim,

Institutional reform is back on the government agenda. It is about time too. The earlier attempts by the PH government never saw the light of day. The idea never even left the paper. Despite forming a special committee for institutional reform, it never really took off. Many are hoping the new reform initiative will not meet the same fate. Many are now more confident since a bipartisan committee, comprising of both government and opposition lawmakers, has been formed to drive the change. The MOU has been signed, now waiting for the real actions. It is right that parliament starts the institutional reform process rolling before moving to other government institutions. We need to empower parliament more.


I see government R&D as one sector which is in dire need of reform. As we all know, R&D is a major driver of innovation. Poor governance of R&D can paralyze innovation. Sadly, the current system of governance is not yielding the optimal outcomes. There is too much duplication and wastages in the country’s R&D endeavors. Talents in R&D are also not fully harnessed because of the poor collaboration and sharing of expertise among institutions. No wonder, we keep hearing of low R&D commercialization, laboratory facilities not optimally utilized, poor linkages among the key stakeholders especially between industry and academia, and the low image of the R&D profession, which remains unattractive to the student population. At the rate things are going, we will never fully capture that rainbow of innovation that the nation aspires. We must remember that innovation drives a country’s competitiveness. Nevertheless, it is still not too late to reform. There are many working models around the world we can emulate. They all have that common element of strengthening linkages and enhancing collaboration among stakeholders in the wider innovation landscape.


First, all public research institutions must be merged into one central governance entity. This will not only ensure better collaboration among the relevant institutions but also reduce duplications thus saving the costs of research. In agriculture for example, there exist opportunities for MARDI, MRB, and MPOB to share expertise. In manufacturing, there is a lot of synergy between SIRIM and MIMOS. Agriculture is also going digital nowadays. If we include the R&D centers of universities, the talent resource in agriculture and manufacturing is massive. By merging the institutions, the choice of research topics will be done more objectively by the central team, without favoring any particular institution. At the moment, there have been reports of reviewing panels favoring the institutions they come from. This practice not only distorts the allocation of R&D funding but also deprives good R&D of support.


Second, by having in place central management of the R&D centers, the linkage with other stakeholders, especially the industry can be better organized and managed. The science park concept, which brings together the parties in innovation, should be strengthened. News that Technology Park Malaysia is under quite a massive restructuring is a positive sign. This presents the opportunity for the Park to further strengthen its role in motivating linkages with industry and academia by providing easy access to their facilities including pilot plants and other commercialization platforms. The government must make sure that the KPI for TPM is not profit, as has been the practice in the past. Instead, the main KPI should be about the number of R&D commercialization projects realized through academia-industry collaboration, as well the rise of start-ups graduating into full-fledged businesses.


Third, the merged R&D entity should invest in centralized laboratory facilities for all R&D talents to access. The centralized laboratory can include dedicated laboratories for IR4.0, digitalization, biotechnology, energy, water, and health. Looking at the country’s spread of R&D talents, there has been a massive rise in the number residing in private universities. Most are young talents, brimming with energy to embark on meaningful R&D. Unfortunately, research laboratories in private universities are not as well equipped as in public universities. This is quite understandable since investment in laboratories is not cheap. This is where the government can build such central laboratories under the merged R&D entity and make the facilities available to the private universities at reasonable service charges. It would be a big waste if talents in private universities are not maximally harnessed by the country. There is no time to waste reforming the nation’s R&D institutions if we want to avoid the debilitating condition of innovation paralysis.

Wednesday 20 October 2021

Carbon farming and palm oil

by Professor Dato Dr. Ahmad Ibrahim,

THE palm oil business can no longer ignore the call to embrace sustainability more thoroughly. As the consequences of the climate crisis grow, businesses worldwide are investing in climate mitigation measures.


Tree crops like the oil palm are viewed as a natural sequester of carbon (one of the greenhouse gases responsible for global warming and, thus, climate change), especially carbon dioxide which plants absorb for photosynthesis. However, within the crop ecosystem, the potential for carbon emission also exists. Rotting vegetation and crop residues within the oil palm plantation undergo microbial degradation, emitting greenhouse gases such as methane, which is 21 times more damaging than carbon dioxide. Carbon farming, which involves minimizing the release of such greenhouse gases, is proving to be agriculture’s way to be truly green. This has attracted the attention of the palm oil business as it struggles to achieve sustainability.


No wonder there is an increased interest in carbon farming among oil palm growers. However, farmers must be sufficiently motivated to make it work. The carbon credit market, which operates on the pollution offset principle, is one platform to consider. Farmers who engage in sustainable practices can earn tradable carbon credits. Farmers must show evidence to claim the carbon credit. The measurement of the sequestered carbon must be shown as proof. This is where a reliable technique, agreed by all parties, is necessary. Satellite imagery is increasingly used as a measurement technique to provide that evidence. The data obtained is deciphered using artificial intelligence to calculate the biomass and carbon sequestration value of the palms. It is also less labor- and time-intensive than field sampling.


Planet.com, an American Earth-imaging company, conducts daily imaging of the planet so its satellite data can supply more data points to increase the effectiveness of modeling. Planet.com has participated in such projects in Europe to develop and commercially launch a platform that facilitates large-scale zero-emission aspirations by measuring and monitoring the carbon sequestration of regenerative agriculture.


There is no reason why the palm oil business in Malaysia cannot do the same to generate data for sustainability project monitoring. The data can then be used to train machine-learning models on crop health, application of fertilizers, use of pesticides, water, and tillage to monitor the impact of regenerative agriculture management practices on carbon storage. Satellite imagery can be the game-changer as the palm oil sector strives to show its commitment to sustainability.

Monday 11 October 2021

Rubber industry needs new investment, research to thwart 'apocalypse'

 by Professor Dato Dr. Ahmad Ibrahim,

I recently saw a video predicting a rubber "apocalypse". Though the focus was on natural rubber, synthetic rubber was not spared.

There was concern about a supply shortage looming in the West as the pandemic had disrupted the world's logistics and supply chain.

Shortages of containers to transport rubber have become common. Some industrial users in the United States have raised the red flag on inventory shortfall.

This is understandable since almost 90 percent of the world's natural rubber comes from the ASEAN nations, where Thailand is the leading producer.

Malaysia, once a leading producer, is now at No. 8, behind even Africa's Ivory Coast. The industry has been poorly supported.

There are many reasons why buyers of natural rubber in the West have raised the red flag on supply. Apart from logistics difficulties, production in producing countries has also suffered setbacks.

The low prices which ran for longer than usual are partly to blame. Rubber smallholders, which comprise almost 90 percent of producers, have shunned tapping rubber.

And those who have been dependent on immigrant labor face worker shortages because of the Movement Control Order during the pandemic.

Because of the persistently low prices, farmers cut costs on fertilizers and other agronomic inputs. This not only reduced yield but also created the right conditions for the onset of diseases. In the past two years, a serious leaf disease, Pestalotiopsis, has been spreading through rubber-growing countries.

The disease had a role in bringing down rubber yield. The three issues of price, labor, and disease are to blame for the supply dry up.

Buyers are understandably worried because natural rubber is indispensable in many consumer products. Tire makers are especially jittery because almost 70 percent of natural rubber ends up in tires. The bigger the tire, the more natural rubber it has. Aviation tires use 100 percent natural rubber. This also explains why tire manufacturers are strongly behind the move to ensure the sustainability of natural rubber.

It is not just about the environment, but about the continued supply of the raw material. Tire makers are under increasing pressure to meet the growing consumer demand for green tires. Synthetic rubber has its own sustainability problems as they are made from fossil sources, a no-go for consumers worried about climate change and global warming.


The fact is, with the growing demand for green and renewable tires, the future of natural rubber looks good. But natural rubber producers have not shown the enthusiasm to capitalize on the opportunity.

There is no doubt that natural rubber countries need to invest more in research. These include research in new products, less labor-intensive production, and more disease-resistant clones. It is unfortunate that there has been less emphasis on the right research.

Here in Malaysia, researchers at the Malaysian Rubber Board (MRB) are busy with other work demands. One involves resolving the disputes over properties that the board owns.

The MRB has been blessed with a string of high-value assets in Kuala Lumpur and the surrounding areas, thanks to the foresight of leaders in the early days of the Rubber Research Institute of Malaysia.

Now that these assets have assumed very high value, there appears to be a scramble to control them from many sources. Now, friends at MRB are unsure whether the assets are a blessing or a curse. The focus on research, which is badly needed during this crucial period, has been sadly neglected.

Natural rubber farmers here have long cried for help. The supply concern in the West has motivated tire manufacturers to look for alternatives. Already, we have heard reports of a new plant, dandelion, showing some promise.

If this plant becomes a market reality, it would be a repeat of the time when the world discovered synthetic rubber through research driven by a natural rubber shortage during the war years. Unless remedial steps are taken soon, the natural rubber "apocalypse" will not just be a reality for buyers in the West, but also for poor rubber farmers here!

 


Sunday 10 October 2021

Managing Nature’s Biodiversity Assets - Critical in Five Year Plan

 by Professor Dato Dr Ahmad Ibrahim

The government has just launched the 12th Malaysia Plan. The initial response has been mixed. Some laud the Plan for its alignment to the SDGs. Others say the targets and assumptions are unrealistic. Many agree the success of the Plan would depend on the commitments of stakeholders. Most important of all, the key stakeholders, including the business, community, and civil society, must own up to the Plan. There must be good buy-in from all in the execution. As has been shown in most Plans, effective implementation is the greatest challenge.

All 5-year plans have one thing in common. How can the country’s assets be managed efficiently to deliver returns sustainably? How can we sweat out maximum value from our assets? Values include those accruing to the economy and society without depleting the asset’s core value. In this age, where sustainable development is a common agenda, some key assets including nature, people, talent, and the built-up physical infrastructures must be well managed. Increasingly, nature assets have emerged as one most critical. It has always been the upset in the natural assets such as water which have been most disruptive. Managing such assets requires close monitoring and supervision, to achieve efficiency. The usual monitoring is done by physically assessing the assets. This is often time consuming and less reliable.

Because of advances in imaging technology, nowadays monitoring can be done remotely and at reasonable cost. We are talking about using satellite technology to generate the image and deploying AI algorithms to decipher the image for decision making. That way, the assessment can be fast and reliable. Take the natural asset of biodiversity for example. It is one of our prized assets because it has implications on many resources that we depend on. Water is one resource which an economy and society cannot do without. As logging increasingly encroaches into sensitive water catchment areas, disruption to water supply has been showing a disturbing trend. There is no doubt that as the population grows, increased social and economic demands will create threats to the country’s land and marine biodiversity.

In response to these threats, the Government has created the National Policy on Biological Diversity 2016-2025 which addressed the country’s biodiversity goals and aligned the country’s commitment to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This is where effective monitoring is key. Many companies offer services on deploying earth observation data for effective monitoring. The largest is Planet which provides daily, global satellite data. With Planet as a partner, the Government can leverage high-resolution imagery to make strategic and bold progress towards achieving the goals identified in the National Policy on Biological Diversity and drive the country towards a healthier and diverse ecosystem.

The earth observation technology can also support other SDG agenda including smart cities, border surveillance and early warning on climate disasters. Such investments pay as we strive to deliver sustainability to the nation.

Friday 8 October 2021

Invest in IR4.0 tech to reduce dependence on migrant labour

 by Professor Dato Dr Ahmad Ibrahim,

JULY 1 marked a milestone for Malaysia's scientific and technological development. The crucial role of science in powering the economy is being recognized increasingly as ministers heading the Science, Technology, and Innovation Ministry and Economic Planning Unit jointly launched the nation's Fourth Industrial Revolution (IR4.0) blueprint.

It provides details of the country's implementation of technologies that will shape future businesses. IR4.0 sees the world striving to achieve sustainable development.

A few years ago, the International Trade and Industry Ministry launched the Industry Forward plan, based on IR4.0, which focuses more on the manufacturing sector.

IR4.0 has implications for all of society. People need to embrace IR4.0 if the country is to benefit from it fully. In urban areas, sustainable cities are only viable through IR4.0 adoption. 

In rural areas, the call to communities to embrace IR4.0 is equally strong because of low agricultural productivity and marketing difficulties.


Tuesday 5 October 2021

Kudos to government for the aggressive vaccination drive

 by Professor Dato Dr Ahmad Ibrahim,

MANY are criticizing the government, especially the Health Ministry, for what they claim as poor management of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Owners of small businesses are among those who have been very vocal. This is understandable since they have been badly affected by the lockdowns and other measures enforced to reduce infections, which remain high to date.

Some blame the emergence of new more infectious variants, especially the Delta variant, for this.

Others, especially on social media, blame those who do not follow standard operating procedures (SOP). They are particularly riled up by the actions of certain political leaders who have not been adhering to the SOP. There have been accusations of double standards, and feelings of distrust for the authorities are building up among the general public. 

However, we should accept the fact that this pandemic is an unusual health phenomenon, which has caught the entire world by surprise. Even countries with developed economies that should logically be equipped with the most advanced healthcare system have not been spared the devastating onslaught of the virus. The healthcare systems of these countries were rendered helpless, what more the developing nations where the health infrastructure is not as advanced.

Even the World Health Organisation has admitted to not being fully prepared for the battle against Covid-19. As such, most of their initiatives have been introduced through the trial-and-error approach.

The fact that the virus keeps mutating makes the situation even more complicated.

The battle has become more difficult with the mushrooming of conspiracy theorists on social media, causing those who are less well-informed to lose faith in the system.

When Malaysia was doing comparatively well in the early months of the pandemic, our Health director-general received a lot of praise. At the international level, he was credited for managing the pandemic well compared to other countries. Little did we know that new waves of infection would follow.

The truth is everyone is learning how best to deal with the virus. We still are learning new things every day. It is a mistake to equate the current pandemic with the other recent outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) illnesses and other microbe attacks. We must be fair in our criticisms.

Whatever it is, experts see vaccination as a possible solution not so much to eradicate but more to live with the virus. It is unfortunate that even vaccination, which has produced positive outcomes in some countries in the West, has been ridiculed by conspiracy theorists. Vaccine hesitancy has proven to be a major challenge for the government besides the uncertain supply of vaccines.

Despite the odds, our vaccination rate is among the highest in the world, exceeding 400,000 doses a day. In order to achieve that feat, the number of vaccination centers was increased, and the private sector was roped in to help administer the jabs. The result has been outstanding, and there are indications that we may reach 80% herd immunity before the end of the year. The government deserves credit for such a feat.

Saturday 2 October 2021

Focus on Vaccine Research

 by Prof Datuk Dr. Ahmad Ibrahim

AS we struggle to end Covid-19, public health experts agree the solution lies in the rapid deployment of vaccines. Despite the many conspiracies surrounding vaccines, scientists were not deterred from pressing ahead to develop one for Covid-19.

The outcome has been impressive. As a result of recent advances in vaccine research, only in a matter of one year, a few vaccine candidates became ready for the market, not just from the West but also from the East.

This goes to show that the many years of investment in vaccine research are paying off. Normally it would take longer, even up to five years, to develop a workable approved vaccine. We saw from the vaccines developed that they came from partnerships between research laboratories and Big Pharma.

The Pfizer vaccine, for example, was successfully developed through a partnership between Pfizer and Biontech of Germany. The AstraZeneca vaccine had the support of researchers from Oxford University. I have no doubt that all the other vaccines, such as Russia’s Sputnik V and China’s Sinovac, were also developed through such partnerships.

Nearer to home, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam are all investing in vaccine development. The recent announcement by the Malaysian government to embark on a similar commitment should be lauded.

It is right that the Institute for Medical Research (IMR), the nation’s foremost research center for health, is handed the task to coordinate this. In fact, we need to strengthen the IMR to become a world-class research centre for medicine again. It was one in the not-too-distant past.

Many of IMR’s scientists then were world figures in medical science. It is time to return to those glory days. It is even more urgent now as we witness how neglect in the health system can bring untold damage to the economy and people’s livelihood.

We should seriously consider allocating more of the nation’s budget to medical research. Increasingly, today’s wars are not fought against nation-states, but against microbes which pose threats to public health and disrupt economies.

The health budget should also allocate funds to improve health literacy. There is evidence that a majority of the population is still unaware of preventive health measures. Cases of obesity, a precondition for many serious ailments, are on the rise in the country. Early on during the vaccine rollout, many had doubted the benefits of vaccination. This only changed when positive news about vaccinations was shared through the media.

People are now more supportive of vaccinations. They flock in droves to get vaccinated. Now, we have to deal with the issue of vaccine supply. There have been reports of even vaccine hoarding by some developed economies. This has deprived many countries of much-needed supplies.

After some pressure from the World Health Organisation (WHO), some of the developed countries have announced that they are giving free vaccines to poor countries. The WHO has warned that there will be no herd immunity for the world unless a high percentage of the global population is vaccinated.

Two things have become clear from the pandemic experience.

Firstly, experts say this pandemic may not be the last. In fact, the world may have to live with Covid-19. This means investing in vaccine research and development is of paramount importance as a national strategy. Secondly, just like we have a policy on food security, we need to also put in place a national program on health security and tap on its potential economic value. 

"Global rethink on subsidies"

  By:   Pofessor Datuk Dr. Ahmad Ibrahim, Tan Sri Omar Centre for STI Policy UCSI University MANY countries use subsidies to kick-start n...