by Professor Dato Dr. Ahmad Ibrahim,
I recently saw a video predicting a rubber "apocalypse". Though the focus was on natural rubber, synthetic rubber was not spared.
There was concern about a supply shortage looming in the West as the pandemic had disrupted the world's logistics and supply chain.
Shortages of containers to transport rubber have become common. Some industrial users in the United States have raised the red flag on inventory shortfall.
This is understandable since almost 90 percent of the world's natural rubber comes from the ASEAN nations, where Thailand is the leading producer.
Malaysia, once a leading producer, is now at No. 8, behind even Africa's Ivory Coast. The industry has been poorly supported.
There are many reasons why buyers of natural rubber in the West have raised the red flag on supply. Apart from logistics difficulties, production in producing countries has also suffered setbacks.
The low prices which ran for longer than usual are partly to blame. Rubber smallholders, which comprise almost 90 percent of producers, have shunned tapping rubber.
And those who have been dependent on immigrant labor face worker shortages because of the Movement Control Order during the pandemic.
Because of the persistently low prices, farmers cut costs on fertilizers and other agronomic inputs. This not only reduced yield but also created the right conditions for the onset of diseases. In the past two years, a serious leaf disease, Pestalotiopsis, has been spreading through rubber-growing countries.
The disease had a role in bringing down rubber yield. The three issues of price, labor, and disease are to blame for the supply dry up.
Buyers are understandably worried because natural rubber is indispensable in many consumer products. Tire makers are especially jittery because almost 70 percent of natural rubber ends up in tires. The bigger the tire, the more natural rubber it has. Aviation tires use 100 percent natural rubber. This also explains why tire manufacturers are strongly behind the move to ensure the sustainability of natural rubber.
It is not just about the environment, but about the continued supply of the raw material. Tire makers are under increasing pressure to meet the growing consumer demand for green tires. Synthetic rubber has its own sustainability problems as they are made from fossil sources, a no-go for consumers worried about climate change and global warming.
The fact is, with the growing demand for green and renewable tires, the future of natural rubber looks good. But natural rubber producers have not shown the enthusiasm to capitalize on the opportunity.
There is no doubt that natural rubber countries need to invest more in research. These include research in new products, less labor-intensive production, and more disease-resistant clones. It is unfortunate that there has been less emphasis on the right research.
Here in Malaysia, researchers at the Malaysian Rubber Board (MRB) are busy with other work demands. One involves resolving the disputes over properties that the board owns.
The MRB has been blessed with a string of high-value assets in Kuala Lumpur and the surrounding areas, thanks to the foresight of leaders in the early days of the Rubber Research Institute of Malaysia.
Now that these assets have assumed very high value, there appears to be a scramble to control them from many sources. Now, friends at MRB are unsure whether the assets are a blessing or a curse. The focus on research, which is badly needed during this crucial period, has been sadly neglected.
Natural rubber farmers here have long cried for help. The supply concern in the West has motivated tire manufacturers to look for alternatives. Already, we have heard reports of a new plant, dandelion, showing some promise.
If this plant becomes a market reality, it would be a repeat of the time when the world discovered synthetic rubber through research driven by a natural rubber shortage during the war years. Unless remedial steps are taken soon, the natural rubber "apocalypse" will not just be a reality for buyers in the West, but also for poor rubber farmers here!
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